Perhaps some time ago, the situation in the Middle East had too much influence on the crude oil market, resulting in changes in inventory data that were not directly reflected in the trend of crude oil. However, as the effect of the situation in the Middle East temporarily cooled down, the changes brought about by inventory were very intuitive. In the past period of time, API and EIA inventories have almost maintained the same trend, either increasing at the same time or decreasing at the same time. API inventoryCrude Oil Trading System increased by 0.9 million barrels of Aki last week, and the expected value is reduced by 2.68 million barrels, which can be said to be diametrically opposed to expectations. However, the API inventory data released this week is expected to be 270,000 barrels, and the current value is 40,000 barrels. Barrel, also far exceeded expectations. These two data shows that crude oil inventories have grown very rapidly.
In this way, it is possible to reallocate the quotas of oil-producing countries whose output has not reached the required limit to countries that exceed the required output, namely Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE. At the same time, the production targets of all member states can be increased, although the increase may only come from a few member states. So far, there are no signs that Iran and other member states will agree to such a redistribution, but before the OPEC meeting on Friday, officials have conducted extensive negotiations and may reach further compromises.
According to preliminary statistics released by CDU, a statistical agency under the Russian Ministry of Energy, in Moscow on Thursday, Russia’s crude oil production in July increased by 4%, with daily output reaching 250,000 barrels, an increase of 80,000 barrels from June, only compared to 206 years ago. The highest output after the collapse of the Soviet Union, set in October, fell by about 40,000 barrels. Statistics show that Russia produced 47.49 million barrels of crude oil in July, an increase of 4% year-on-year. According to CDU statistics and calculated on a per-ton barrel conversion rate, Russia’s daily output in July increased by nearly 90,000 barrels per day on average compared to June.
EIA predicts that the price of Brent crude oil in 208 will be US$706/barrel, compared with the previous estimate of US$70.68/barrel; the price of Brent crude oil is expected to be US$674/barrel in 209, compared with the previous estimate of US$698/barrel.
In the moving average graph with daily lines and short, medium, and long-term lines arranged at the same time, in addition to the clear bull market and bear market with long positions, there are more entangled conditions of several lines.
This view is theoretically possible because major international organizations, including the InCrude Oil Trading Systemternational Atomic Energy Agency, have stated that Iran is fulfilling its nuclear agreement. But judging from Trump's consistent proposition, this view can only be based on theory.
The Nigerian Oil Minister said that he is negotiating on the reduction of OPEC's production cut by 100,000 to 200,000 barrels per day. The Kuwaiti Oil Minister said he hopes to reach an agreement, and he also said that if Iran refuses to reach an agreement, he will seek a solution.
Russia believes that this plan will bring stability to the oil market during the period of strong summer oil demand in the northern hemisphere. It is reported that Russia will continue to support the alliance between OPEC and other oil-producing countries until 209, and whether to set new quotas based on market demand.
Crude oil prices fluctuated downward today. US sanctions on Iran may continue to benefit international crude oil prices. Some analysts have warned that crude oil investors need to pay attention to the risk of falling from high levels, and the $70 mark may be broken again.