Wenjun reminder: If EIA inventory meets market expectations, crude oil prices may fall below the $60 mark, but it should be noted that gasoline and refined oil inventories, if reduced as expected by the market, crude oil prices may rebound in a short-term botElectronic Mini Crude Oil Contracttoming Quotes, therefore, it is recommended that investors refrain from blindly shorting.
Bloomberg reported that since last Wednesday, Brent oil prices have twice set the biggest one-day drop in recent years. However, crude oil is still the best performing asset this year. Oil prices have risen by a total of% this year, and oil distribution has risen by more than 7%. But at the same time, U.S. oil is unable to rise above the $75 mark, and the Burundi Oil seems to be unable to break the $80 mark, and a single-day drop in oil prices has gradually become the norm. "The Wall Street Journal" article stated that this shows that although the fundamentals are still positive for the oil market to a large extent, investors are more inclined to sell, even when market news is not necessarily pessimistic.
The market expects that the inflow of moderate to heavy acid crude from Iran will decrease, which changed the structure of crude oil in the Middle East in early September, causing the monthly Dubai cash and swap contract spreads to soar. The price difference between Dubai cash and swap contracts is usually regarded as an indicator of market sentiment in the Middle East sour crude oil market.
In the past week, the U.S. dollar index continued the previous long-term trend. From 970, it further expanded its gains and once climbed above 970. On Monday, the market also set a new high in the intraday high to 907. However, the longs were fleeting. , The market immediately dived high after recording a new high. Not only did it give up all the gains during the day, but also fell below the 970 line. The inverted hammer line was recorded on the day. This is a clear signal of a peaking and callback in the trend chart, especially in the market that continues to rise. The index has not further expanded its decline for the time being, but the key depends on the evening U.S. market and whether the U.S. index really enters a downward trend. If the U.S. index continues to fall today, the subsequent rise in crude oil prices will be more stable.
Among them, the Fed’s interest rate decision is expected to raise interest rates in a dovish manner due to non-agricultural weakness and Trump’s criticism. The third quarter GDP of the United States may not achieve a dazzling performance due to the impact of trade frictions. As of press time, the US Congress has not passed an expenditure bill to support the normal operation of the US government.
The above two are the factors that currently have a major impact on crude oil prices. They are mainly for market panic. OnElectronic Mini Crude Oil Contract the other hand, the impact of crude oil inventories on oil prices. API and EIA inventories have risen again last week. The previous strong increase in the number of wells in the United States has paved the way for the increase in inventory, and the latest US drilling announced last Friday The number has increased by 7 again. Therefore, crude oil inventories may continue to increase this week. This is a big negative factor for crude oil. In addition, the crude oil price itself will face greater pressure when it hits 68 dollars. , Inventory pressure may further limit the increase in oil prices.
Webster, director of the Group's Energy Impact Center, said Venezuelan crude oil production has been declining, but the rate of decline is expected to accelerate. However, data analysis pointed out that investors are beginning to notice the risks brought by higher oil prices to the demand side, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate sharply in the next few weeks.